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Comparing methodologies for developing an early warning system

Summer Reading Camp Self-study Guide

The purpose of this report was to explicate the use of logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis in the development of early warning systems. It was motivated by state education leaders' interest in maintaining high classification accuracy while simultaneously improving practitioner understanding of the rules by which students are identified as at-risk or not at-risk readers. Logistic regression and CART were compared using data on a sample of grades 1 and 2 Florida public school students who participated in both interim assessments and an end-of-the year summative assessment during the 2012/13 academic year. Grade-level analyses were conducted and comparisons between methods were based on traditional measures of diagnostic accuracy, including sensitivity (i.e., proportion of true positives), specificity (proportion of true negatives), positive and negative predictive power, and overall correct classification. Results indicate that CART is comparable to logistic regression, with the results of both methods yielding negative predictive power greater than the recommended standard of .90. Details of each method are provided to assist analysts interested in developing early warning systems using one of the methods.

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Summer Reading Camp Self-study Guide

Summer Reading Camp Self-study Guide

This guide is designed to facilitate self-studies of planning and implementation of state-required summer reading camp programs for grade 3 students who scored at the lowest level on the state reading assessment. It provides a template for data collection and guiding questions for discussion that may improve instruction and increase the number of students meeting the grade-level standard by the end of the summer reading camp.

The guide is composed of a scoring guide and consensus rating form. The scoring guide includes guiding questions and potential sources of evidence. After completion of the scoring guide, a facilitator will guide the self-study team through a consensus rating process to come to agreement on the current status of implementation in the district or school and planning for next steps. The content of the scoring guide is based on eight areas that research indicates are important for summer reading camp implementation: teacher effectiveness and qualifications; student selection and enrollment; instructional time; content and instruction; assessment selection and data use; mentoring and/or paraprofessional use; learning environment; and communication with administration, staff, and parents.

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